Election Musings

For the first time, I've been tempted to waver on my election prediction of Mr. McCain winning a very narrow victory. Gallup has Mr. Obama ahead by 9%. The race is increasingly solely about the economy, and many, including one of my favorite publications, The Economist, think Mr. Obama, or at least his advisers, may be better prepared to handle it.

I've told people, if you're not pro-life, and don't think you'll ever have money, I can't quickly explain to you why McCain will help you more. It takes time most voters "don't have" to explain the corporate tax structure's effect on the economy, the downside of taxing the well-off and capital gains, and how a "windfall" tax on oil companies is not going to help. Most voters don't follow politics enough to understand that everyone is better off when the same party doesn't control all three houses(Reps, Senate, White).

All this being said, I still see Mr. McCain pulling out a narrow victory. In the more relevant poll of likely voters, he is within the margin of error. October is a politically long month, and there is less known about Mr. Obama than Mr. McCain, making any October surprise likely to go right.

Ironically, the economy is likely to undergo it's (at least invisible to Joe Voter) turnaround before the next president has an effect. The relentless rate cuts by the Fed, along with falling oil prices, will have an effect before the next presidents policies, and they will be larger. Warren Buffet is already buying, a sign the bottom is near, if not here yet. Housing sales are already starting to pick up, due to market forces. The Stabilization Bill, along with massive injections of liquidity, has yet to take effect. Whoever wins the election is likely to inherit a recovering economy, which will be beginning to boom as he is up for re-election.