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Tuesday, September 30, 2008
NRA Goes After Obama
While the exact claims of the ad can be quibbled over(here is the objections and here is a response to them) it is generally understood that Mr. Obama is generally less supportive of gun rights, to say the least, and would like to see more gun control passed. What he would have the votes for may be another story, as Democrats learned their lesson when their ludicrous "Assault Weapon Ban" helped to cost them their congressional majority.
The ad makes a passing reference to a quote by Mr. Obama which disparaged gun owners and the religious. Don't expect it to be the most subtle or the last reference to what sums up many people's objections to Mr. Obama.
Federal Reserve Acts Instead of Congress
That's because, since Congress didn't act, the Federal reserve did instead. Some of my beloved fellow econ-nerds will point out that the mechanism is different, but I would argue it is not different enough to quibble over. They loaned out $630 billion, about 2.5 times as much as would have been available immediately under the house bill. In addition, while there will be some minimal interest paid, there will not be the profit potential of the house bill. There will also not be any of the reforms proposed, nor limits on executive compensation that some cared so deeply about. The Dow fell almost 800 points on the news, hardly helpful, especially to consumer confidence. Also, this is a more inflationary move than the House bill, yet will not directly help the CDS and CDO situation. Basically this move has all the problems with the legislation, but none of the benefits. Careful what you wish for.
This entire crisis has caused me to re-evaluate my stand on the Federal Reserve. I used to believe it was critical to economic growth. I am no longer so sure. Those that predicted this, such as Mr. Ron Paul, will carry more weight with me in the future on this matter. Moreover, in the big picture, the Fed essentially overruled Congress. The bill was defeated, and the Fed went against certainly the spirit of that vote. There are many cries for more regulation of Wall Street. Maybe there should be cries for more regulation of the Fed. Or maybe a conversation about weather it should exist, and if so, in what form.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Who Is A Taxpayer?
"And the reason is, is because we've got to make sure that the 95 percent of folks get a little bit of relief. We've got to stop borrowing from China and running up the credit card on the next generation.
There is a sense of fiscal responsibility that we've got to have here in this country, and the notion that those of us who have been extraordinarily lucky can't pay a little bit more so the waitress down the street or the guy making $40,000 or the guy making $70,000 can get a little bit extra so that he can put away some savings and watch his child eventually walk off that stage with a college diploma in her hand."
Given all this, you would think that pretty much everyone pays taxes. You would be completely wrong. 41% of the population pays no taxes. That number would rise roughly equally under Mr. McCain or Mr. Obama. If you're in the middle 20%, you pay virtually no taxes, about 2-3%. The second highest 20%, at little more, around 6-7%. Only the wealthy pay much in the way of taxes. How much? The top 1% pays almost 40% of total income taxes, and the top 20% pay almost 85% of all income taxes.
So when you see the talking heads on TV, or politicians talking about "Taxpayer Money" "bailing out the rich" or "why can't the working class get bailed out" just remember, "Taxpayers" means the rich.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Tragedy Of The Common Medicines
This is predictable human behavior, and why the market is the most efficient regulator. There is only an incentive to control costs when you bear them. It is the same reason people use more gas/oil/water when it is subsidized. Subsidy is the enemy of conservation and efficiency. When gas reached $4 a gallon, all sorts of things happened that "couldn't" happen before. People carpooled and cut back unnecessary trips. Car companies announced electric and hybrid cars.
The solution is not interfere with the market, but to allow the market to operate freely, and find solutions within it. Distortion of the market will only lead to delayed and exaggerated forms of the problem that was originally avoided.
House Finally Acts On Rangel
In other shameful behavior by Congressman news, Rep. Hastings(D, FL) said that Ms. Palin "[doesn't] care too much about what they do with Jews and Blacks" since she was a hunter. One could only imagine the outrage if a Republican had said such a thing about, for instance, Mr. Biden. There is, of course, a double standard about such things.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Ron Paul's Take On The Crisis
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Biden's Honest, Perhaps Too Honest.
In contrast, Mr. Obama criticized Mr. Biden and simply ignored the hypocrisy when he slammed Mr. McCain for changing positions on AIG, when Mr. Biden had done the same thing. Mr. Obama could learn a few things from his running mate about integrity.
Congressional Democrats Preparing Spending Bill In Secret
(Side note: When I was in some of the worst financial shape of my life, my heating oil costs were several times higher than I expected. I cut expenses and worked more. Then I acted to solve the problem, and not use heating oil anymore. It just takes discipline and thinking. Apparently that's asking too much of people.)
Of course, subsidizing oil products is one of the things that causes the price of oil to rise. But I digress.
Also in the bill is various bribes for the poor to vote Democrat, such as more food stamps, more unemployment spending and the like. We'll know more when we can actually read the law, when it's passed.
Market Stabilization Bill Porking Up
Though there are certainly different schools of thought of how to deal with the current situation, no one with any sense could propose that a pork-laden version of one of the ideas is better than the idea in central form. Congress should be ashamed of it's looting, but it has already been established that Congress has no shame.
Guilt By Association?
It is not a crime to be associated with leftists such as Mr. Ayers. While many of their beliefs are misguided, they were correct to a degree about Vietnam and Iraq, and are needed as part of an open political debate. The Republican party also has it's share of extremists.
However, Mr. Obama has been very deceptive about his connection with Mr. Ayers, which is cause enough for concern. As noted earlier, the association with Mr. Bush is a majority of Mr. Obama's campaign rhetoric. This certainly makes Mr. Obama's associations fair game.
As the column notes, though, there is now evidence that Mr. Obama was far more than an associate of Mr. Ayers. He was an integral part of his organization, and was trusted by Mr. Ayers. He was on the payroll of the organization which was Mr. Ayers founded to put his beliefs into action.
Many people drift towards radicalism, especially leftist radicalism, during their college years. Most drift away from it as they enter the workforce and so-called "real world". If this is the case for Mr. Obama, he needs to clearly delineate this. If he has not steered away from this type of thinking, he should make that clear. Either way, the voters should demand more answers.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Reflections On The Wall Street Mess
The meat of the plan is simple, the government will buy up CDO's and MBS's for very small percentages of their believed worth, and sell them after the market has stabilized, hopefully for a profit. Each of the parties has put forth a sensible suggestion, the Democrats that executive pay be limited, and the Republicans that all profit be earmarked for the national debt. Other, sillier proposals have also been made, but hopefully they will be ignored.
Somewhat ironically, Democrats also want more "protections" for homeowners, ignoring the fact that unsuitable homeowners are arguably at the root of the problem, and the easiest way to deal with the problem, though not least painful, is to let these people, most of whom don't want or can't afford their houses, lose them. The historical root of the entire crisis lie in the government's creation of Freddie and Fannie as a way to make home ownership easier for the poor. That's where the problem stems from, and this seems to be overlooked. The Democrats also blame "deregulation" and want a bunch of new bureaucracy and red tape for the markets. While there still needs to be some investigation of how this spun out of hand so badly so quickly, the real regulations needed are a couple pages long at the most, and simply address the grading of CDO's and other derivitives, not entire new agencies or piles of red tape.
There is plenty of blame to go around, from Alan Greenspan, to the unchecked deceit and greed by Wall Street along with the blind eye turned by both parties, but especially the Democratic party, which blocked reform proposed years ago. Mr. Obama was particularly deceitful about this, blaming Mr. McCain for the problem when in fact, Mr. McCain tried to address the issue in part years ago. Mr. Obama continues to completely lie about the issue, ignoring the fact that his party was to blame for the majority of the problem under the guise of "helping poor people get mortgages". When people who shouldn't get loans get them, bad things happen.
Mr. Obama ignored the history of the issue and instead waited to see what would be popular and spout that as his rhetoric. Mr. McCain responded with a devastating and accurate assessment, which of course was all but ignored by the left wing "mainstream media":
"Whether it's a reversal in war, or an economic emergency, he reacts as a politician and not as a leader, seeking an advantage for himself instead of a solution for his country,"
Mr. McCain is often wrong, in policy and tactics. However, he has distinguished himself as a leader rather than a political opportunist. Mr. Obama should strive to meet that standard consistently.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Rangel Continues To Embarass Congress, Himself
As if this was not enough, he felt it necessary, or perhaps funny, to call Ms. Palin "disabled", and that she should be pitied, rather than taken seriously. There is really no lack of ways that this is offensive, ranging from the fact that Ms. Palin's newborn son has Down's Syndrome, that she is a woman, that she is Mr. McCain's running mate, who is somewhat disabled due to war injuries or just the fact that pity and dismissal is hardly the appropriate way to handle someone who is disabled. In fact, it is hard for there to be an innocent explanation.
Advocates for the disabled of course were upset and noted that FDR was disabled. More to the point, is Mr. Rangel seriously saying that wounded veterans should not serve in political office? That disabilities would disqualify someone from the presidency?
Of course, the Republicans have plenty of unethical members as well, such as ex-Rep. Mark Foley. However, with Mr. Obama running primarily, if not exclusively, on changing Washington, he must not overlook such a blatantly unethical man in such a powerful position. Rep. Rangel simply must resign as at least the Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee.
Corporate Socialism Being Cemented Federal Policy
The government is working on a proposal to bail out all the idiots who were smart enough to spin all manner of insanely complicated derivatives of mortgages, but not smart enough to understand high school economics. Well, actually, the smart ones made their money and got out. The idiots are the CEO's and other management that let it happen. In addition, it has handcuffed the market by banning short selling, a critical tool for the market. The proposal is being rushed through as quickly as possible. That's where the problem is.
The gold standard for this crisis is the AIG model. Personally, I oppose all bail outs, but realistically, if they are going to occur, you want what happened with AIG to be the model to follow. You loan them money at a very high rate, and take 80% of their stock as collateral.
God only knows what congress is going to slap together and call a recovery package. It will be packed with pork and breaks for big contributors. Rest assured, this will be one of the worst pieces of legislation ever. It will cost the taxpayers billions if not trillions of dollars, let the guilty off the hook, give out billions in pork, and throw a huge tangle of regulations on the market. The bills that are rushed through are the worst, because there is no time to review them. No one even knows what they are voting on or signing. The classic example is the PATRIOT act, which basically flushed away a good chunk of the rights of the American citizen.
The market should have been allowed to work. The bad debt would be written down, bad companies punished and good rewarded. It would have been painful, but it would have been done. Now it will drag on indefinitely, at the taxpayers expense.
This has allowed us to see what we face in the election. Mr. McCain was forced from his logical pro-market stand, and now is forced to back this nonsense, because the voters don't understand economics, and he would forfeit the election if he spoke the truth. Ron Paul actually has guts, and tells it like it is, and that's why he isn't the nominee.
Mr. Obama waited until he could see what was popular, then backed that. His running mate, Mr. Biden, told the wealthy that paying more taxes was patriotic. That's why they shouldn't worry that under the Democratic Plan, they pay all the taxes.
What Mr. Obama and Mr. Biden don't understand is that in this day and age, those of means choose where they will live. With the dollar being intentionally devalued, the Democratic tax plan could be the last straw that convinces the wealthy that there are better places to live. Depending on preference, it could be anywhere from the EU to Dubai to South America. With the wealthy gone who will pay the taxes?
Of course, the real answer is devious. Regardless of weather the wealthy leave, the high taxes that Mr. Obama promises "only the top 5%" will have to pay will eventually hit everyone. See, tax brackets aren't indexed for inflation. People tell me, Mr. Obama's just restoring the Clinton tax code, and we did fine then. Well, there's a longer answer to that, mostly that Mr. Clinton was much closer to the moderate Republican Mr. McCain is than the socialist that Mr. Obama is. But also, $250,000 in 1993 was a lot more money than in 2008. With the government taking on all this debt and intentionally devaluing the dollar, inflation is going to soar. When $250,000 is middle class income(ignoring that fact that in many areas it already is for a family), or a working class income, do you think Mr. Obama will cut those taxes? Nope. He'll levy new taxes against those making over a million, claiming it's needed to pay for all his social programs, and that only the rich will pay it. Then, as inflation continues, the process repeats, until we are fully socialistic.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Update On Israeli Strike On Iran
Obama Wants You To Argue With Your Neighbors?
What is equally disturbing is that this was a irrational response to a bump in the polls for Mr. McCain following his convention and a slew of negative ads. Anyone who has the tiniest bit of experience watching politics knew it would be temporary, and it is in fact already over. How was Mr. Obama baited into going so very negative over a temporary situation? He has been allowing his frustration to show, which is really political immaturity. With cracks in composure already showing, it looks to be a long road to Nov. 4 for the politics of hope.
Under Obama's Plan, ATF Is A Criminal Organization
Essentially, unless your weapons are locked down more than the federal agency in charge of firearms, you could be charged with a felony.
Mr. Obama's hatred of guns is of course well known, as even his hand picked crowds call him out on it. Mr. Obama was forced to resort to saying he didn't have the votes anyway, so not to worry about it. Even staunchly Democratic crowds know that he would if he could. His record is clear.
Thankfully, after decades of Supreme Court cowardice, the current court stood up for the Bill of Rights and said that the second amendment had not, in fact, expired. Mr. Obama's flip-flopping on the issue aside, the court ruled his proposals were unconstitutional. Ironically, Heller v. DC may have helped Mr. Obama, as single issue voters know he is constrained constitutionally when it comes to guns, and are thus free to vote for him if they otherwise agree with him. Without Heller, no gun owner in their right mind could vote for him. With it, some may, if everything else lines up.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
My Take On The Bailouts
That of course does not make for a moral justification, but in contrast to the other proposals by candidates, they look fairly inoffensive. Compared to Mr. Obama's platform of tax the oil companies and the wealthy and throw the money around like a rapper at a strip club, it's pretty acceptable. Mr. Obama's "policy" is mostly a list of money he'd hand out to his supporters. Mr. McCain's policy is a bunch of vanilla, though likely effective, tax cuts, and a "pledge" to cut spending. (Note: I am aware of Ms. Palin's oil windfall tax in Alaska. She's better than average, not perfect, and I believe there is a difference in that oil fields in Alaska are owned by the government, and all drilling there is subject to negotiations of royalties.)
The most important part of the bailout is that the government must make every effort to make back the people money, if not turn a profit. Lobbyists must not be allowed to turn these into subsidies. In fact, whenever possible, as large of a profit as possible should be made, and used to pay down the debt. This would also discourage future bailouts, and make them a last resort.
Election Getting Truly Ridiculous
Finally, the most absurd item in the news. Lynn Forester de Rothschild says she will not vote for Obama because he is an elitist. That's right. A Rothschild will not vote for Mr. Obama because he is an elitist. A member of perhaps the wealthiest, best connected, and most privileged family in the entire world, thinks Mr. Obama, born in poverty and who still has a net worth of perhaps, on a good day 0.1% of Ms. Rothschild, is too much of an elitist to be voted into office, even though she is a member of the DNC. I am simply speechless.
Clarifying Where We Stand
" I enter the discussion by saying I have the utmost respect for every person that has taken the time to add something to an already wonderful page. The editor has done a tremendous service by not only bringing up relevant issues but also making those issues fun to discuss. Those that provided feedback continue to capture my attention with their insightful comments. I probably, as much as it pains me to say, am the least well read and least educated person that has dared to contribute to the discussion. Ahh well….its all good.
I’m attracted to the editor’s libertarian perspective. I see it as a form of being an almost “through back” conservative. A conservative that really does believe and holds true to the fundamental economic, social, and moral constraints that have proven to lead to a stable individual, family, and nation. I love the idea of empowering the individual to be responsible for seizing the opportunities that life provides. I’m also not naïve enough to think that every person starts from the same point, has the same circumstances, dispositions, talents, abilities, training, parents, schooling, perspective, morals, or personal coaching. But I’ve been through enough to say, that most people in our nation really do have an abundance of opportunity that is simply undeniable.
The questions that I continue to ask of all the learned people that I converse with is simple. What is your belief about these issues at the very core? What is the most basic set of idea you subscribe to? Do you think that the government shall or can pave the path of prosperity for the nation? Do you think that expansion and proliferation of private enterprise can help nearly all people live life they want to? Is there a subtle mix of both that will allow the world to be at peace? I just would like to cut through all the nonsense about who said what to who because this person is all about saying this to get elected and all that stuff that wont matter when they get into office because they lied anyway.
I’d really like to find out what the root of the discussion is. Obviously if a person believes that the greatest good for the greatest number can be achieved by high amounts of taxation and government control then Mr. Dem would be a great president for your set of beliefs. And if another person thinks that the government needs to ease up on how, when, why, they intervene with private citizens rights and resources than may Mr. Rep or Mr. Libertarian would be the best president for this person. Hopefully, I’m clearly expressing my self.
I would like to get to a point where the true intentions of each individual could be clearly articulated. The conversation should not be about who can find the better obscure fact to prove another incompetent. The conservation should be who’s objectives and plans are best in accomplishing the mandate as human being of creating a better place for our fellow man to live. What the comments never addressed is this is how I think we can accomplish a better individual, and better family, and a better country. Who cares what the politicians say. Do we honestly believe them? Sorry, if Im cutting through all the intellectual clutter. Maybe, I’m not yet smart enough to comment on that level. But I believe if the simple people like me can get the thinkers like you all thinking in the right direction.. we might really start making a difference."
With this being said, allow me to attempt to sum up my political philosophy succinctly. I believe that government exists for one reason, which is to ensure the rights of the people and to prevent those rights from being infringed upon by other or by the government itself. I believe that people should be rewarded or chastised by the markets for their efforts or their lack thereof. In layman's terms, the government should be as small as possible, and should not interfere with my life so long as I do not directly interfere with an other's rights. I believe I should be able to make as much money as I can as long as I don't take it by force or deceit, and I don't think the government should take much if any of it. If others choose to give all their money away, not own guns or drugs or do something that I don't approve of, but won't harm me, I shall not interfere with it. In return, they should not interfere with me. Of course, this is an absolute standard which is unlikely to be enacted, but it illustrates what I think society should strive for. I am sure this will result in some interesting comments, and I look forward to hearing other people's personal political philosophy.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
This Is Why People Don't Trust Congress
Why is someone who is so incompetent and sloppy in charge of one of the most powerful committees in Washington, let alone one that deals with what he can't even manage on a personal basis? The taxes involved are not incredibly complex and advanced, and more to the point, any competent CPA could handle them. Why was this not handled by a professional? Does Mr. Rangel believe he is simply above the law? That since he is a congressman, the laws he writes(or more likely, are written on his behalf) do not apply to him?
If Mr. Obama is serious about bringing change to Washington, he should issue a statement demanding Mr. Rangel step down. A vigorous independent investigation should then begin as well as one by the IRS. Mr. Rangel should be punished just like any other citizen, if not more harshly.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Google Outsourcing... to the High Seas?
Google may eventually be forced to consider off-shoring more seriously if the Justice department goes forward with an anti-trust case against them, for having a near-monopoly on online ads. It seems ludicrous that something that is little more than lines of code and contracts could be a monopoly in need of government intervention. (Disclosure: I use Google Ads) Indeed, Google even permits websites to use both it's ads, and the ads of competitors. In extreme cases, the government may need to move against true monopolies. However, in this case, it would simply be punishing success. There is no allegation of anti-competitive behavior, simply too large of market share. Hopefully, the Justice department will recognize this, and decide to allow Google to reap the rewards of their labor.
Bunker Busters to Israel
The most likely is to ensure than Israel cannot strike before the US elections, which could have an unpredictable effect on the elections. Though events that highlight national security tend to favor Mr. McCain, if Iran reacts in a way that angers or scares the US voters, such as closing the strait of Hormuz and spiking the price of oil, Mr. McCain may feel the wrath of voters unable to turn it on Mr. Bush. A post-election strike would also allow the next president to take the credit if it were successful and for the Mr. Bush to take the blame if it goes poorly, as he has little to lose. Congress technically has thirty days to object, but rarely does. If they do, it could conceivably give Mr. McCain a way to attack the Democrat controlled congress, especially if the bombs are presented as for use against Hezbollah instead of Iran.
Of course, there are other possibilities. These would include a need to pressure Iran for one reason or another, as a retaliation to Russia for the Georgia invasion, new intelligence on Iran's nuclear program or a taking advantage of low oil prices. Any of these by themselves or in combination with each other or the reason above is possible.
But make no mistake. Once these bombs are in Israel's hands, it is only a matter of time before they are used. A former Bush administration official predicted a post-election, pre-inauguration strike back in June. Little attention was paid at the time. However, as the final pieces begin to fall into place, such a strike looks more and more likely, if not inevitable.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
How Dirty Will It Get?
Indeed, the media may be hurting it's own cause with the blatant bias. More than half of the people surveyed think the media is trying to hurt Ms. Palin, however, this actually gains her a net 5% of popularity (24% more likely to vote for her vs. 19% less likely). The public is ten times more likely to think the media is trying to hurt Ms. Palin than help her(50% hurt, 5% help, 35% objective).
To drag the race further down into the cesspool, the people behind the Swift boat Campaign are back. They are operating under the name The American Issues Project and have already released the first of their ads, which links Mr. Obama to one of the Weather Underground members. To be honest Mr. McCain could use their help, regardless of the accuracy or appropriateness of the ads. Not only is the media against him, Mr. Obama flip-flopped on public financing and is not bound by the spending limits Mr. McCain is.
Who wins from the campaign going into the gutter? Probably Mr. McCain. Republicans are simply better at dirty politics(even against their own party). The real gains will come not from convincing anyone that either party is better or worse, but from newly registered and inconsistent voters, who are so disgusted that they simply don't vote. This isn't to say the Democrats will not use underhanded tactics, they just are not as good at it.
Who loses? The country as a whole. With people disgusted with the process, it is easier for the two parties in power to simply carry on business as usual, meaning more congressional pay raises for career politicians, more pork for votes and big donors, and none of the things Americans actually want getting done. This election, which both sides now say is about change, seems likely to bring more of the same. Until Americans demand more than the the lesser of two evils, this pattern is likely to repeat.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
America's Most Pressing Energy Need
Iran faced a similar problem, when it became obvious that they may be the target of sanctions, as it possesses plenty of oil, yet little refining capability. They solved the problem in a matter of months by switching all personal vehicles over to CNG, which does not require refining. By doing this simple step, they insulated themselves from sanctions on gasoline. While it is unlikely the US will face sanctions, it will face natural disasters, and may well face terrorism, and either would have grave ramifications for the economy.
It is likely that there are at least several possible solutions to this issue. However, as long as it continues to be ignored by both parties, it is unlikely that any solutions will be found. Until then, we will be forced to continue to simply hope for the best.
Friday, September 12, 2008
Is McCain More of a Feminist Than Obama?
In both cases, the primary root of the inequality is the gender make up of top advisers, who get paid more. Mr. Obama has fewer women as senior advisers, and Mr. McCain has more. Only one of the Mr. Obama's top five staffers(by pay) is a women, as opposed to three of Mr. McCain's. The same dynamic extends out to the top 20 staffers(by pay).
This would be less shameful is Mr. Obama had not used the rhetoric about the need for women to make equal pay for equal work, and using the old 77 cents on the dollar figure. This is simply untrue. When all factors are equal, women make significantly more money than men. Men are simply more likely to prioritize their career.
This begs the question, who is the real feminist? The man who pays his female staffers less, has less female advisers and who passed over a more qualified woman for VP because she threatened to overshadow him? Or the man who pays his female staffer more, has more of them, and nominated a women to be his running mate?
Update
Also, I found this more thorough write up on Mr. Biden's gaffes. It should be noted, though, that he is generally well-liked in the Senate and among his constituents. However, it is surprising that there have not been more questions about his candidacy, and it's benefit to the ticket.
Apparently many of the beleaguered Republican candidates for the House and Senate got quite a bit of help from Ms. Palin and the Republican convention. Though it is still doubtful the Republicans will gain control of either house, they may be able to par their losses.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Presidental Race Gets Muddier
With the stakes this high, Mr. Obama has been, and willing increasingly have to, taking a little bit more negative tone. Mr. Biden has shown to be an ineffective attack dog, scoring few points and putting his foot in his mouth occasionally, such as saying Ms. Clinton may have been a better choice for VP and that pro-lifers don't care about disabled children. With little help from Mr. Biden, Mr. Obama will be forced to take on Ms. Palin, as well as Mr. McCain. This will undermine, to a degree, the mantra of new politics.
While Mr. McCain is most likely little intimidated by Mr. Obama, having endured some of the worst smears and dirtiest politics in the modern era by Mr. Bush in 2000, he will need to stay on message, and watch his famous temper, while letting much of the spotlight go on the very popular Ms. Palin. Having succeeded in using Clintonian triangulation to negate many of Mr. Obama's strengths, Mr. McCain has succeeded in doing what many believed he must do, which is to make the campaign a referendum on Mr. Obama, while avoiding making the campaign about Mr. Bush.
Mr. McCain must move cautiously in these last rounds of the election, throwing mostly jabs to keep his opponent on guard. While there may be an opportunity to throw a knockout punch, Mr. McCain must not force it. He must be content to go to a decision, an environment in which he is favored. He must manage this campaign, and not lose everything in a risky gamble. He should be content to look Presidential and let Ms. Palin and his other surrogates do most of the attacking.
Conversely, Mr. Obama must look for the knockout punch, to re-energize his base and regain a large lead in the polls, which will allow him to revert back to his preferred style. He needs to sweep into the polls with a large lead and momentum, as many of his voters are not as reliable as Mr. McCain's. He must also show himself to be a confident, bold leader, willing to weather the trials and push on. He must bring the spotlight back on himself.
If Mr. Obama does not do this, he risks losing to Mr. McCain as the democrats enlarge their majorities, and all indicators show he should have a cakewalk. His ambitions beyond the senate will be shattered, perhaps irreparably.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
The Feminist Response to Palin
Ron Paul Makes His Endorsement
Does Watching Crime TV Make You Eat More?
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
"Justice" Department Threatens Witness
Chrysler Working On Plug-In Hybrids
Kim Jong-il
Monday, September 8, 2008
Death and Taxes
McCain Surges in Polls
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Race For The White House Tightens
McCain vs. Obama in Taxes in a Format for Maxim Readers
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Flag-Gate?
Mr. Obama would be wise to address this issue, either filling in unpublished gaps, or apologizing, before a firestorm erupts, especially before the blue collar swing states he has been fighting so hard for slip away. Many of these voters would not look kindly on anything that could be percieved to disrepect the flag. This also reinforces the worst attacks on Mr. Obama's patriotism, justified or not.
Quite frankly, this plays perfectly to the Republican message, and Mr. Obama would be foolish not to respond quickly and effectively to it.
Police Clear Themselves in Raid Which Killed Mayor's Dogs
Why were the dogs shot, when at least one of them was fleeing?
Why didn't the police know that this was the Mayor of the town?
Why did the police think they had one type of warrant, when they had another?
Why was there a dynamic entry, when there was no history of violence, nor any reason at all to suspect there would be any?
Why did the judge approve the warrant on such little evidence, IE only that the package was addressed to the house?
On a larger scale, this speaks to where the "War on Drugs" has taken us. There is literally no assurance that our doors will not be kicked in, our pets shot, ourselves and our loved ones handcuffed(in this case next to the dead body of the pets) and our lives turned upside down, because someone gets an address wrong on a package.
Remember, this was not an armed to the teeth crack house in the inner city, nor did police expect it to be. This was a typical suburban house, with no history of criminal activity.
Police are understandably concerned with their safety when executing warrants, and certainly these decisions were made in a split second. This incident is less an indictment of law enforcement than of over-adversarial environment, created by politicians playing to fears and stereotypes in order to score poll points.
The "War on Drugs" needs to be brought to a negotiated end, as we will no more win it than we did prohibition. Resources will be better allocated to addressing actual violent crime, instead of potentially violent crime, and the militarization of law enforcement can be rolled back as legalization deprives criminal gangs of their funding, making both police and civilians safer.
An excellent first step would be Barney Frank's(who I almost always disagree with) proposal to eliminate federal penalties for personal use amounts of marijuana.
Thanks to the Cato Institute, which is holding a forum on this topic.