Bunker Busters to Israel

A shipment of bunker busting bombs that is just about what it would take to carry out a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities is on it's way to Israel. A similar request was rumored to be turned down a little while back. It is unclear why the request has now been granted. There are several possibilities.

The most likely is to ensure than Israel cannot strike before the US elections, which could have an unpredictable effect on the elections. Though events that highlight national security tend to favor Mr. McCain, if Iran reacts in a way that angers or scares the US voters, such as closing the strait of Hormuz and spiking the price of oil, Mr. McCain may feel the wrath of voters unable to turn it on Mr. Bush. A post-election strike would also allow the next president to take the credit if it were successful and for the Mr. Bush to take the blame if it goes poorly, as he has little to lose. Congress technically has thirty days to object, but rarely does. If they do, it could conceivably give Mr. McCain a way to attack the Democrat controlled congress, especially if the bombs are presented as for use against Hezbollah instead of Iran.

Of course, there are other possibilities. These would include a need to pressure Iran for one reason or another, as a retaliation to Russia for the Georgia invasion, new intelligence on Iran's nuclear program or a taking advantage of low oil prices. Any of these by themselves or in combination with each other or the reason above is possible.

But make no mistake. Once these bombs are in Israel's hands, it is only a matter of time before they are used. A former Bush administration official predicted a post-election, pre-inauguration strike back in June. Little attention was paid at the time. However, as the final pieces begin to fall into place, such a strike looks more and more likely, if not inevitable.