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One of Mr. Obama's edges in the race has been a certain aloofness, that with a comfortable lead he didn't need to attack often, and could pour his energy into abstract speeches, which played to his strengths. As the race tightens, he is forced to engage more, taking him away from his game plan. Mr. Obama has not been particularly good at attacking, and Mr. Biden, who as the Vice Presidential candidate has the traditional role of attack dog, has been virtually invisible in the media, though this is partly due to being overshadowed by Ms. Palin. The negativity also serves to alienate some of those who supported Mr. Obama because of his campaign's early positivity.
Mr. McCain's campaign would be well served to pull Mr. Obama down, not into the sewer, but into real politics, where Mr. McCain can win due to experience.
Mr. McCain also benefits from the face that Republicans dominate close elections. With the base energized with the selection of Ms. Palin, Mr. McCain's worst nightmare is averted, that of the religious right staying home, thus delivering the election to Mr. Obama, regardless of other factors. Statistically, those voters turn out. Statistically, the voters who make up Mr. Obama's core demographics, don't.
If Mr. McCain can keep this a close and competitive race, he very well may prevail in November.
2 comments:
Rallying the base may not prove an effective campaign strategy in an election in which registered Democratic ranks have grown by two million, while registered Republicans have fallen 344,000. Combine that with Sen. Obama's superior ground game (Obama leads 3:1 in field offices, for instance), and it quickly becomes evident that the old playbook may not be appropriate in 2008.
See: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/09/democrats_post_big_gains_in_vo_1.php
See also: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/obama-leads-better-than-31-in-field.html
All very true. However, Democrats have outnumbered Republicans the entire modern era. Yet there has been only 1 democratic president(though 2 terms) since 1980.
No one disputes that the Democrats will increase their majorities in both houses. But the polling does not support a such large lead for Mr. Obama. A small one outside the margin of error, yes. But not a 5 to 1 advantage, such as in new registrations. Not even 5x the margin of error.
Indeed this election is playing out very similar to both Bush elections. A large Democratic lead in the summer, shrinking slowly in the early fall. As in those elections, I think most likely the negative campaigning on both sides will alienate moderate voters and push the poll numbers into a statistical dead heat. The election will then come down to mobilization of the base.
Remember as well that McCain kept his promise to use Federal funding, which caps his spending. His wealthy backers will be forced to use 3rd party ads which can attack Mr. Obama, but not support Mr. McCain (if I understand the rules correctly).
Plus, the Republicans are better at negative campaigning. By the election, the moderates will be disgusted with Mr. McCain and distrustful of Mr. Obama and stay home.
Mr. Obama very well may win this race. But if I had to put money on it, I would go with a extremely narrow McCain victory
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