How Dirty Will It Get?

With both campaigns already going negative, the election has veered sharply away from the clean campaign that both sides promised to run. In the last week, there have been attacks with varying degrees of truth by both parties, and negative ads are starting to outnumber positives. More of the direct attacks and distortions have come from the McCain camp, but the media, which is viewed as a surrogate for the Obama camp, has been out for blood as well.

Indeed, the media may be hurting it's own cause with the blatant bias. More than half of the people surveyed think the media is trying to hurt Ms. Palin, however, this actually gains her a net 5% of popularity (24% more likely to vote for her vs. 19% less likely). The public is ten times more likely to think the media is trying to hurt Ms. Palin than help her(50% hurt, 5% help, 35% objective).

To drag the race further down into the cesspool, the people behind the Swift boat Campaign are back. They are operating under the name The American Issues Project and have already released the first of their ads, which links Mr. Obama to one of the Weather Underground members. To be honest Mr. McCain could use their help, regardless of the accuracy or appropriateness of the ads. Not only is the media against him, Mr. Obama flip-flopped on public financing and is not bound by the spending limits Mr. McCain is.

Who wins from the campaign going into the gutter? Probably Mr. McCain. Republicans are simply better at dirty politics(even against their own party). The real gains will come not from convincing anyone that either party is better or worse, but from newly registered and inconsistent voters, who are so disgusted that they simply don't vote. This isn't to say the Democrats will not use underhanded tactics, they just are not as good at it.

Who loses? The country as a whole. With people disgusted with the process, it is easier for the two parties in power to simply carry on business as usual, meaning more congressional pay raises for career politicians, more pork for votes and big donors, and none of the things Americans actually want getting done. This election, which both sides now say is about change, seems likely to bring more of the same. Until Americans demand more than the the lesser of two evils, this pattern is likely to repeat.