Presidental Race Gets Muddier

As Mr. McCain's post election bounce evens out to a slight lead, the campaign for the presidency gets muddier. Not just in the polls, which likely will eventually even out to within most poll's margin of error, but in tone. Both sides are sharpening their knives for a close contest which, of course, only one will survive. Neither Presidential candidate in likely to have another chance, as Mr. McCain will be even older next time, along with a losing record, and Mr. Obama would find it almost impossible to defeat Ms. Clinton in a primary after losing a general election, and thus validating her strongest argument. Mr. Biden has not polled well nor performed well, and in any case has never done well in the primaries. Only Ms. Palin has a chance at redemption in 2012.

With the stakes this high, Mr. Obama has been, and willing increasingly have to, taking a little bit more negative tone. Mr. Biden has shown to be an ineffective attack dog, scoring few points and putting his foot in his mouth occasionally, such as saying Ms. Clinton may have been a better choice for VP and that pro-lifers don't care about disabled children. With little help from Mr. Biden, Mr. Obama will be forced to take on Ms. Palin, as well as Mr. McCain. This will undermine, to a degree, the mantra of new politics.

While Mr. McCain is most likely little intimidated by Mr. Obama, having endured some of the worst smears and dirtiest politics in the modern era by Mr. Bush in 2000, he will need to stay on message, and watch his famous temper, while letting much of the spotlight go on the very popular Ms. Palin. Having succeeded in using Clintonian triangulation to negate many of Mr. Obama's strengths, Mr. McCain has succeeded in doing what many believed he must do, which is to make the campaign a referendum on Mr. Obama, while avoiding making the campaign about Mr. Bush.

Mr. McCain must move cautiously in these last rounds of the election, throwing mostly jabs to keep his opponent on guard. While there may be an opportunity to throw a knockout punch, Mr. McCain must not force it. He must be content to go to a decision, an environment in which he is favored. He must manage this campaign, and not lose everything in a risky gamble. He should be content to look Presidential and let Ms. Palin and his other surrogates do most of the attacking.

Conversely, Mr. Obama must look for the knockout punch, to re-energize his base and regain a large lead in the polls, which will allow him to revert back to his preferred style. He needs to sweep into the polls with a large lead and momentum, as many of his voters are not as reliable as Mr. McCain's. He must also show himself to be a confident, bold leader, willing to weather the trials and push on. He must bring the spotlight back on himself.

If Mr. Obama does not do this, he risks losing to Mr. McCain as the democrats enlarge their majorities, and all indicators show he should have a cakewalk. His ambitions beyond the senate will be shattered, perhaps irreparably.